The astronomical chances of living this moment on Earth - and the odds against surviving it in Gaza

Sometimes, amid the chaos and confusion of the world we inhabit, it’s good to indulge in a little cosmic meditation on our actual presence here on the planet. Or, more specifically, the mind-boggling calculation that sees us here at all as any living being. 

Consider the vastness of the Universe. Ponder the still-unknown prospects of other life across that deep expanse. Then think about the wondrous spectacle of the Pale Blue Dot - our earth - sitting in the vast darkness of space, teeming with life. 

And, from the Big Bang of 13.8 billion years ago, to the moment of our own human delivery, try to contemplate the staggering chances of any one of us ever happening to live upon it:

“The numerical chance of you being alive is astronomically low, often cited around 1 in 10^2,685,000, an incomprehensibly large number representing the precise, unbroken chain of genetic and environmental factors from the dawn of life to your specific parents meeting, sperm fertilizing egg, and surviving to birth you, a statistical near-impossibility making your existence a "miracle". This staggering odds calculation combines the universe's vast timeline, Earth's perfect conditions, and the unique biological lottery of every ancestor's successful reproduction, making it far less likely than winning impossible lotteries. 

Breaking Down the Astronomical Odds 

• Genetic Lottery: The chance of your parents meeting and having kids is multiplied by the odds of a specific sperm fertilizing a specific egg, which involves massive numbers (e.g., 1 in 100 million sperm x 1 in 8 million egg combinations = ~1 in 70 trillion for just one generation).
• Ancestral Chain: This must repeat flawlessly for every single ancestor, going back millions of years. A single failure (death, infertility, not meeting) stops the chain.
• Cosmic & Planetary Factors: Even before that, Earth needed the right distance from the sun (Goldilocks zone), water, and stable conditions for life to even begin, adding more layers of improbability. 

In essence, the odds are so tiny that your existence is considered a singular, unique event in the universe's history, a triumph over near-infinite possibilities.”

The numerical chances of you being alive on this planet is 1 in 10^2,685,000 - that’s 1 in 10 to the 2,685,000th power, or 1 in a 10 followed by 2,685,000 zeros - a near impossibility. 

Otherwise conveyed:

“That probability is the same as if you handed out 2 million dice, each die with one trillion sides…then rolled those 2 million dice and had them all land on 439,505,270,846.”

And with this mind-numbing numbering comes a more comforting thought:

“The odds that you exist and are reading this right now are basically zero. You shouldn’t be here. But you are, so please never think you haven’t persevered. That you are not resilient. You are the most resilient thing that has ever existed that we know of.”

The sheer known rarity and value of human life is truly a thing to behold. And the near-miracle chances of it occurring brings useful perspective on the trivial daily things we somehow deem so important, helping us realise the preciousness of our everyday existence. 

Alas, any grand calculation trying to impress on us the significance of our precious being against all such odds will likely get sucked into the black hole of capitalist ‘existence’, discouraging any thought of ever seeing beyond our consumerist ‘survival’, rather than our amazing evolutionary travels and astonishing arrival. 

And if these numbers are hard to comprehend - basically, the bewildering maths needed to calculate a single life - what kind of equation might be used on top of that vast number to measure the further odds of others then wantonly proceeding to kill such near-impossible life?

What are the additional odds of a tiny child in Gaza, having made it on that extraordinary journey to life on earth, ready to grow and prosper, only to see their life snuffed out in an instance by the bombing of their home, or being shot dead by a callous sniper? Having brought a life to almost impossible fruition, what further odds of seeing it so brutally extinguished. 

If the mathematical chances of any living human - or other natural creature - making it here on earth is little commonly considered, what chance of anyone recognising the calculated removal of such life? How did the marvel of evolutionary existence become so conditioned to the acceptance of violent non-existence? From the near astronomical miracle of creating a life, to the sickening mundanity of ending one, how did we ever get to the point of effectively normalising the wicked elimination of a life?

And what greater multiplication of that heinous act than the highest crime of genocide? Again, is there a formula or equation we might employ to arrive at such horror odds?

As the violations and killings continue to mount in the genocidal ‘ceasefire’, what further compounding of those odds against survival with the regime now banning crucial aid agencies, like Doctors Without Borders and Oxfam, from operating inside Gaza? Indeed, what further chances of the regime ever taking notice of any such international appeals to uphold humanitarian laws? Or most Western media ever using full and truthful language to expose such crimes?    

We can leave any such calculations to the projections of expert number crunchers. But the next time you see yet another child blown apart, wilfully starved, or left to perish in the winter hardship of Gaza, just stop for a moment to think about the wonder of the Pale Blue Dot, the massive improbability of ever being an inhabitant, and the inhuman act of terminating such rare life upon it. 

This year of 2026 will slip by in just another tiny blip of cosmological time. But it will be no less of a crucial moment for us here on the Dot in thinking about how we help stop any further mass taking of precious life. 

Whatever the odds against doing so, there remains every good chance that the best inclinations of humanity, derived of stardust, and still of evolving resilience, will prevail in that all-too-human task.